Democrats Hold The Advantage

There's still plenty of time between now and the 2026 Midterms

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Welcome to the launch of the Polling USA House model!

The model is broadly a swing model, with baselines organized using previous election results. I’ll make adjustments along the way as candidates and data begin to fall into place ahead of the midterms.

As the numbers stand today, the model suggests the Democrats would reclaim control of the House with 231 seats, while the Republicans would return to the minority with 204.

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That’s a nominal shift of sixteen seats in either direction. With plenty of close races on the board, the next midterm cycle is shaping up to be one where many seats could easily change hands.

Now, let’s move on to the details for our paying subscribers!

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