Mamdani Closes the Gap as Cuomo’s Lead Narrows
New polls show Mamdani gaining ground, cutting Cuomo’s once-commanding lead to single digits
With a week to go until the NYC Democratic primary, it’s a good time to check where the candidates stand in the polls, and whether any real movement has taken place.
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Today, we received two new polls: one from the Manhattan Institute and another from the Center for Strategic Politics.
The Manhattan poll shows Cuomo maintaining a comfortable lead from the first ballot to the last. He starts with 43% on the first ballot, while Mamdani trails by 13 points at 30%. The next closest candidate is Adams at 7%.
Lander and Adams both make it to the eighth round alongside Cuomo and Mamdani, each earning around 10% of the vote. Ultimately, both are eliminated, and the final ballot puts Cuomo twelve points ahead of Mamdani, 56% to 44%.
The Center for Strategic Politics poll paints a closer race. On the first ballot, Cuomo leads Mamdani by eight points, 38% to 30%. Like in the Manhattan poll, Lander and Adams advance to the seventh round, polling at 12% and 14%, respectively.
Again, the final ballot comes down to Cuomo and Mamdani, but this time it’s much tighter, with Cuomo at 52% and Mamdani at 48%. That result closely mirrors pre-debate polling from Data for Progress.
In both polls, Mamdani is picking up more of Lander and Adams’ voters than Cuomo is, but not by a large enough margin to overtake him.
On average, Cuomo leads Mamdani by eleven points on the first ballot, with the candidates at 40% and 29%, respectively. Other candidates account for about 28% of the vote, while only 4% of voters remain undecided.
While Mamdani has gained ground on the final ballot, Cuomo maintains a clear edge over his progressive opponent. On average, Cuomo finishes with 54%, while Mamdani ends with 46%.
Still, Mamdani has made significant gains since March, rising from an average of 32% to 46% on the final ballot, while Cuomo has dropped from a peak of 68% just a few months ago.
If the race is as close as the Center for Strategic Politics or Data for Progress polls suggest, it could all come down to which candidate turns out more voters in early voting and on election day.
However, if the Manhattan Institute poll is more accurate, Mamdani has a steep hill to climb in the next seven days.