Podcasters, Players, and Politicians Collide
Unexpected names shake up early 2028 polling as Democrats splinter and Republicans flirt with celebrity chaos
New polling from Overton Insights offers an early look at the 2028 presidential field, alongside some unconventional matchups, featuring the likes of Joe Rogan and Charles Barkley.
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Let’s start with the Democratic side of things, and boy, is it a mess!
The initial ballot asked Democrats who they’d vote for among ten candidates. Kamala Harris remains at the top of the list with 38%, while Buttigieg and Newsom trail far behind at 11% and 10%, respectively.
Harris holds comfortable leads over her Democratic rivals across the ideological spectrum. Interestingly, her support is weakest among liberal Democrats, where she pulls just 34%.
So how does the race shape up if you remove Harris, who currently seems more likely to run for governor of California than for president in 2028 (at least for now)?
Things quickly turn into a competitive three-way race between Buttigieg, Newsom, and Walz, each drawing 15% of the vote. AOC isn't far behind at 11%, suggesting the potential for a four-way contest right out of the gate.
Buttigieg leads among liberal Democrats at 22%, while Newsom holds a slight edge among moderates with 17%. Stephen A. Smith, surprisingly, does best among conservative Democrats at 16%—though the small sample size among that subgroup warrants some caution.
Overton also posed a hypothetical three-way race between Harris, AOC, and former NBA player Charles Barkley.
Harris dominates that field with 66% of the vote, while AOC garners support from one in five voters. Barkley lands at just 6%, likely reflecting his limited name recognition among primary voters.
Now, onto the Republican side!
Vance finds himself in a relatively tight race with the President’s eldest son, pulling 32% to Trump Jr.'s 26%. DeSantis comes in third with 11%, followed by Rubio at 9%.
Trump Jr. performs best among liberal Republicans, though, as with conservative Democrats, that subgroup is small, so take it with a grain of salt. Among moderates, Trump Jr. leads with 36%, while Vance dominates among conservatives, earning 39%.
Another question presented a three-way GOP primary between Vance, Joe Rogan, and Barstool Sports owner Dave Portnoy.
It seems the podcast personalities don’t resonate with the average Republican voter, as Rogan pulls just 8%, and Portnoy a mere 3%. Vance runs away with it, earning support from 75% of Republicans overall, including 50% of moderates, his weakest group.
In a general election matchup, Harris leads Vance by a narrow, somewhat uncomfortable, margin of just three points.
Partisan voters back their candidates by similar margins, but Harris enjoys a 13-point advantage among independents. Still, 23% of independents say they’re unsure who they’d support in this scenario.
That independent gap grows even wider in a hypothetical matchup between Vance and Barkley. Vance leads overall by nine points, and Barkley’s low name recognition continues to drag him down. A quarter of Democrats say they’d be unsure who to vote for if Barkley were their nominee.
We’re still a long way out from the 2028 election, and plenty of candidates will enter, or drop out, before then. But for now, it’s fun to see where things stand, and how it might all evolve over the next few years.