The Mamdate of Heaven
Cuomo's collapse clears the way for Mamdani's rise to City Hall
Last night, Zohran Mamdani declared victory in the NYC Democratic primary over his rival, Andrew Cuomo.
With a stunning first-round showing by the self-described democratic socialist in the race for mayor of America’s largest city, many are now wondering how he’ll fare come November.
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While the dust is still settling, let’s take a brief look at how the current results are shaping up. With just over 93% of the vote counted from the first ballot, Mamdani leads with 44%, while Cuomo trails nearly eight points behind at 36%. Brad Lander made a strong showing as well, being the only other candidate to earn double-digit support.
Given Mamdani’s relatively wide lead and Cuomo’s lack of an electoral coalition among the remaining candidates, a Mamdani victory on the final ballot seems all but certain.
It pays to make friends in politics, something Cuomo clearly hasn’t mastered.
Of course, we’re only through the initial round of voting. However, a couple of pre-primary polls offer insight into potential matchups for the November general election.
The most recent poll comes from the Manhattan Institute, conducted a few weeks ago. It showed Mamdani at 33%, with independent Eric Adams at 19%, Republican Curtis Sliwa at 16%, and the other independent Jim Walden at 5%.
When undecideds are removed, the numbers shift to Mamdani 46%, Adams 26%, Sliwa 22%, and Walden 7%. For context, Adams won the 2021 mayoral election in what was effectively a two-way race against Sliwa, securing 67% of the vote.
The second poll, from Emerson College and conducted at the end of May, showed similar results. It placed Mamdani at 35%, compared to Sliwa’s 16% and Adams’ 15%.
Again, removing undecideds, the numbers adjust to Mamdani 48%, Sliwa 22%, Adams 21%, and Walden 8%.
We’ll almost certainly see fresh, non-hypothetical polling in the coming weeks that will give us a clearer picture now that Mamdani is the presumptive Democratic nominee.