The Redistricting Panic Is Justified
Young voters, Hispanics, and independents are drifting away from the GOP and the maps might not save them
While a number of states are starting to throw around threats of gerrymandering their rival party out of their respective states, pollsters are still grinding away, releasing new generic ballot polling that gives us an idea of how Americans are feeling today.
I decided to take a look at a set of eight recent polls released between July and August as a way to provide a snapshot of the recent topline averages. It becomes quickly apparent why Republicans are heeding Trump’s call to redraw their respective maps, as they find themselves trailing their unpopular Democratic opponents.
On the current eight-poll average, the Democrats sit at 47 percent, while their Republican rivals are four points lower, coming in at 43 percent nationwide. While we are still more than a year out from the midterms, being down by four points just seven months into a new administration is not the position you want to be in.
For clarity, the eight recent polls I’m using are YouGov, Rasmussen, Leger, Emerson, Quantus, Echelon, Cygnal, and AtlasIntel. Including more Republican-leaning pollsters in the mix helps paint a competitive picture for the midterms, though that only highlights how much Republicans are struggling if even their friendly pollsters cannot push them over the line.
Speaking of which, let’s take a look at how some of the subsamples are doing, specifically those under 30 years of age, Hispanics, and independent voters.